In 2016 and especially in 2015, a strengthening dollar detracted from U.S. investors’ international stock returns. This year, the opposite has happened. Historically, during periods when international stocks outperform U.S. stocks, a weakening dollar has been a major driver of returns.
That ignores the opportunity cost of lost growth. Every year of Isaac’s fee savings is invested. If Isaac earned 7.00% annualized for 30 years and Henry earned 6.75%, that 0.25% difference amounts to over half a million dollars! Compound interest: the 8th wonder of the world!
Typically, a prolonged run of gains breeds exuberance. Instead, memories of 2000 and 2008 are short-circuiting excitement. More than in bull markets past, clients ask about rich valuations and whether we are overdue for a downturn.
As Brexit demonstrated, knee-jerk reactions can be imprudent. Advising clients through myriad momentous events over the last 27 years tells us that it is generally necessary to take a deep breath and let the implications unfold.